Policy Research Working Paper | Private_Sector_Development | World Bank

Rethinking the state's role in finance

2013-04-04T04:00:00.000Z

The global financial crisis has given greater credence to the idea that active state involvement in the financial sector can be helpful for stability and development. There is now evidence that, for example, lending by state-owned banks has helped in mitigating the impact of the crisis on aggregate credit. But evidence also points to negative longer-term effects of direct interventions on resource allocation and quality of intermediation. This suggests a need to rebalance the state's roles from direct to less direct involvement, as the crisis subsides. The state does have very important roles, especially in providing well-defined regulations and enforcing them, ensuring healthy competition, and strengthening financial infrastructure. One of the crisis lessons is the importance of getting the basics right first: countries with complex but poorly enforced regulations suffered more during the global crisis. Evidence also suggests that instead of restricting competition, the state needs to encourage contestability through healthy entry of well-capitalized institutions and timely exit of insolvent ones. There is also new evidence that supports the state's key role in promoting transparency of information and reducing counterparty risk. The challenge of financial sector policies is to better align private incentives with public interest, without taxing or subsidizing private risk-taking.

The foundations of financial inclusion : understanding ownership and use of formal accounts

2013-04-05T04:00:00.000Z

Financial inclusion -- defined here as the use of formal accounts -- can bring many welfare benefits to individuals. Yet the authors know very little about the factors underpinning financial inclusion across individuals and countries. Using data for 123 countries and over 124,000 individuals, this paper tries to understand the individual and country characteristics associated with the use of formal accounts and what policies are effective among those most likely to be excluded: the poor and rural residents. The authors find that greater ownership and use of accounts is associated with a better enabling environment for accessing financial services, such as lower account costs and greater proximity to financial intermediaries. Policies targeted to promote inclusion -- such as requiring banks to offer basic or low-fee accounts, exempting some depositors from onerous documentation requirements, allowing correspondent banking, and using bank accounts to make government payments -- may be especially effective among those most likely to be excluded. Finally, the study the factors associated with perceived barriers to account ownership among those who are financially excluded and find that these individuals report lower barriers in countries with lower costs of accounts and greater penetration of financial service providers. Overall, the results suggest that policies to reduce barriers to financial inclusion may expand the pool of eligible account users and encourage existing account holders to use their accounts with greater frequency and for the purpose of saving.

Diasporas and outsourcing : evidence from oDesk and India

2013-04-08T04:00:00.000Z

This paper examines the role of the Indian diaspora in the outsourcing of work to India. The data are taken from oDesk, the world's largest online platform for outsourced contracts. Despite oDesk minimizing many of the frictions that diaspora connections have traditionally overcome, diaspora connections still matter on oDesk, with ethnic Indians substantially more likely to choose a worker in India. This higher placement is the result of a greater likelihood of choosing India for the initial contract, due in large part to taste-based preferences, and substantial path dependence in location choices. The paper further examines wage and performance outcomes of outsourcing as a function of ethnic connections.

Joining, upgrading and being competitive in global value chains : a strategic framework

2013-04-09T04:00:00.000Z

In recent years, global value chains have played an increasing role in business strategies, profoundly affecting international trade and development paradigms. Global value chains now represent a major source of socio-upgrading opportunities and a new path for development. Trade, competitiveness and development policies should be reshaped accordingly to seize these opportunities and avoid the risks associated with greater participation in global value chains. This paper provides a framework and analytical tools for measuring and improving a country's performance with respect to participation in global value chains. With a clear operational focus, it provides guidance for countries willing to join, maintain participation, and/or move up global value chains. With the ultimate objective to increase the value (the development content) for trade, it also offers strategies to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks of developing countries' participation in global value chains.

How does competition affect the performance of MFIs ? evidence from Bangladesh

2013-04-15T04:00:00.000Z

Over the past 20 years, Bangladesh has witnessed strong competition among microfinance institutions. Using program-level panel data from 2005-2010, this paper studies the microfinance institutions' recent competitive roles in their pricing of products, targeting strategies and portfolio shifts, as well as their ability to recover loans. The findings do not support the view that newer microfinance institutions are less risk-averse in their targeting, or that increased borrowing among households due to microfinance institution competition has lowered recovery rates. There is also a considerable urban-rural distinction; although newer microfinance institutions tend to attract riskier clients in urban areas, the opposite is true in rural areas. Loan recovery rates are also the highest among the newest microfinance institutions for women in rural areas, suggesting that microfinance institutions may offer distinct products in these areas to attract better-risk clients. The portfolio of newer microfinance institutions also has a greater share of lending for agriculture, and fewer savings products.

Food prices, wages, and welfare in rural India

2013-04-17T04:00:00.000Z

This paper considers the welfare and distributional consequences of higher relative food prices in rural India through the lens of a specific-factors, general equilibrium, trade model applied at the district level. The evidence shows that nominal wages for manual labor both within and outside agriculture respond elastically to increases in producer prices; that is, wages rose faster in rural districts growing more of those crops with large price run-ups over 2004-09. Accounting for such wage gains, the analysis finds that rural households across the income spectrum benefit from higher agricultural commodity prices. Indeed, rural wage adjustment appears to play a much greater role in protecting the welfare of the poor than the Public Distribution System, India's giant food-rationing scheme. Moreover, policies, like agricultural export bans, which insulate producers (as well as consumers) from international price increases, are particularly harmful to the poor of rural India. Conventional welfare analyses that assume fixed wages and focus on households' net sales position lead to radically different conclusions.

Potential and actual FDI spillovers in global value chains : the role of foreign investor characteristics, absorptive capacity and transmission channels

2013-04-24T04:00:00.000Z

Using newly collected survey data on direct supplier-multinational linkages in Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Vietnam, this paper first evaluates whether foreign investors differ from domestic producers in terms of their potential to generate positive spillovers for local suppliers. It finds that foreign firms outperform domestic producers on several indicators, but have fewer linkages with the local economy and offer less supplier assistance, resulting in offsetting effects on the spillover potential. The paper also studies the relationship between foreign investor characteristics and linkages with the local economy as well as assistance extended to local suppliers. It finds that foreign investor characteristics matter for both. The paper also examines the role of suppliers' absorptive capacities in determining the intensity of their linkages with multinationals. The results indicate that several supplier characteristics matter, but these effects also depend on the length of the supplier relationship. Finally, the paper assesses whether assistance or requirements from a multinational influence spillovers on suppliers. The results confirm the existence of positive effects of assistance (including technical audits, joint product development, and technology licensing) on foreign direct investment spillovers, while the analysis finds no evidence of demand effects.

How to avoid middle income traps ? evidence from Malaysia

2013-04-26T04:00:00.000Z

Malaysia's structural transformation from low to middle income is a success story, making it one of the most prominent manufacturing exporters' in the world. However, like many other middle income economies, it is squeezed by the competition from low-wage economies on the one hand, and more innovative advanced economies on the other. What can Malaysia do? Does Malaysia need a new growth strategy? This paper emphasizes the need for broad structural transformation; that is, moving to higher productivity production in both goods and services. This paper examines productivity growth for Malaysia at the sectoral level, and constructs several measures of the sophistication of goods and services trade, and puts these comparisons in a global context. The results indicate that Malaysia has further opportunities for growth in the services sector in particular. Modernizing the services sector may provide a way out of the middle income trap, and serve as a source of growth for Malaysia into the future.

Informality and profitability : evidence from a new firm survey in Ecuador

2013-05-01T04:00:00.000Z

This paper estimates the impact of informality on firm profits using a new firm-level survey designed specifically for this study. The survey was administered to about 1,200 firms with 50 employees or less in Ecuador's two largest cities, Quito and Guayaquil, plus two main centers of economic activity near the northern and southern borders. The paper's results confirm that the extent of firms' compliance with a set of regulatory requirements is linked to the perceived costs and benefits of informality, such as the probability of detection by the authorities and the likelihood of being fined. Nonetheless, taking into account the non-random placement of firms along the formality-informality spectrum and controlling for a large set of firm, owner, and location characteristics, the paper finds that more formal firms tend to be more profitable and have higher output per worker. This impact operates, inter alia, through more formal firms' ability to obtain improved access to credit and achieve higher sales by issuing receipts to clients.

Political economy of public policies : insights from distortions to agricultural and food markets

2013-05-02T04:00:00.000Z

The agricultural and food sector is an ideal case for investigating the political economy of public policies. Many of the policy developments in this sector since the 1950s have been sudden and transformational, while others have been gradual but persistent. This paper reviews and synthesizes the literature on trends and fluctuations in market distortions and the political-economy explanations that have been advanced. Based on a rich global data set covering a half-century of evidence on commodities, countries, and policy instruments, the paper identifies hypotheses that have been explored in the literature on the extent of market distortions and the conditions under which reform may be feasible.

A helping hand or the long arm of the law ? experimental evidence on what governments can do to formalize firms

2013-05-07T04:00:00.000Z

Many governments have spent much of the past decade trying to extend a helping hand to informal businesses by making it easier and cheaper for them to formalize. Much less effort has been devoted to raising the costs of remaining informal, through increasing enforcement of existing regulations. This paper reports on a field experiment conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, in order to test which government actions work in getting informal firms to register. Firms were randomized to a control group or one of four treatment groups: the first received information about how to formalize; the second received this information and free registration costs along with the use of an accountant for a year; the third group was assigned to receive an enforcement visit from a municipal inspector; while the fourth group was assigned to have a neighboring firm receive an enforcement visit to see if enforcement has spillovers. The analysis finds zero or negative impacts of information and free cost treatments, and a significant but small increase in formalization from inspections. Estimates of the impact of actually receiving an inspection give a 21 to 27 percentage point increase in the likelihood of formalizing. The results show most informal firms will not formalize unless forced to do so, suggesting formality offers little private benefit to them. But the tax revenue benefits to the government of bringing firms of this size into the formal system more than offset the costs of inspections.

Productivity growth in Europe

2013-05-14T04:00:00.000Z

This paper tests whether structural or firm-specific characteristics contributed more to (labor) productivity growth in the European Union between 2003 and 2008. It combines the Amadeus firm-level data on productivity and firm characteristics with country-level data describing regulatory environments from the World Bank's Doing Business surveys, foreign direct investment data from Eurostat, infrastructure quality assessments from the Global Competitiveness Report, and credit availability from the World Development Indicators. It finds that among the 12 newest members of the European Union, country characteristics are most important for firm productivity growth, particularly the stock of inward foreign direct investment and the availability of credit. By contrast, among the more developed 15 elder European Union member countries, firm-level characteristics, such as industry, size, and international affiliation, are most important for growth. The quality of the regulatory environment, measured by Doing Business indicators, is importantly correlated with productivity growth in all cases. This finding suggests that European Union nations can realize significant benefits from improving regulations and encouraging inward and outward foreign direct investment.

Farther on down the road : transport costs, trade and urban growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

2013-05-15T04:00:00.000Z

Transport costs are widely considered an important barrier to local economic activity but their impact in developing countries is not well-studied. This paper investigates the role of inter-city transport costs in determining the income of Sub-Saharan African cities, using two new data sources. Specifically, it asks how important access to a large port city is for the income of hinterland cities in 15 countries. Satellite data on lights at night proxy for city economic activity, and shortest routes between cities are calculated using new road network data. Cost per unit of distance is identified by world oil prices. The results show that an oil price increase of the magnitude experienced between 2002 and 2008 induces the income of cities near a major port to increase by 6 percent relative to otherwise identical cities 500 kilometers farther away. Cities connected to the port by paved roads are chiefly affected by transport costs to the port, while cities connected to the port by unpaved roads are more affected by connections to secondary centers. These are important findings for economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa since the majority of its population growth over the next few decades is expected to be in urban areas.

Trade insulation as social protection

2013-05-16T04:00:00.000Z

In a world with volatile food prices, countries have an incentive to shelter their populations from induced real income shocks. When some agents are net food producers while others are net consumers, there is scope for insurance between the two groups. A domestic social protection scheme would therefore transfer resources away from the former group to the latter in times of high food prices, and do the reverse otherwise. This paper shows that in the presence of consumer preference heterogeneity, implementing the optimal social protection policy can potentially induce higher food price volatility. Such policy indeed generates a counter-cyclical demand shock that amplifies the effects of the underlying food shortage. The results call for a reassessment of food stabilization policies. In particular, the authors urge caution against the systematic condemnation of trade insulation practices.

Drawing a roadmap for oil pricing reform

2013-05-20T04:00:00.000Z

In 2011, the median oil imports rose to 5 percent of gross domestic product for net importers. In the past several years, many governments have not passed through the world oil price increases to consumers fully. As a sign of divergent pricing policies, the retail prices of gasoline, diesel, and cooking gas in January 2013 varied by a factor of 190, 250, and 70, respectively, across developing countries. Policies to keep oil product prices low to benefit the economy and protect the poor have had a number of unintended negative consequences, including flourishing corruption in the oil sector and entrenchment of monopoly operators or inefficient firms through which subsidies are channeled, stifling competition and raising costs. The path to market-based pricing depends on the starting conditions: the gap between current and market-based price levels, the level of public awareness about the extent of departure from market prices, the degree of market concentration and competition in downstream oil, the subsidy delivery mechanism where subsidies are provided, the robustness of social service delivery, and the perceived credibility of the government. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that pricing reform often does not have a clear end and should instead be viewed as a continuous process of adjustment and search for mechanisms that take into account the country's institutions and political system, and the oil sector's market structure, infrastructure, and history.

The effect of biodiesel policies on world oilseed markets and developing countries

2013-05-20T04:00:00.000Z

Using an empirical model, this study provides some insights into the functioning of the oilseed-biodiesel-diesel market complex in a large country that determines the biodiesel price, reflecting market equilibrium changes resulting from volatility in the crude oil price. Oilseed crushing produces joint products -- oil and meal -- and this weakens the link between the biodiesel and oilseed feedstock prices. Higher crude oil prices increase biodiesel prices if biofuel benefits from a fuel tax exemption, but lower them with a blending mandate (minimum biofuel content requirement in marketed fuel). When both canola and soybeans are used to produce biodiesel, an increase in the crude oil price leads to higher canola prices, but the effect on soybean prices is ambiguous and depends on relative elasticities of meal demand and canola supply because canola produces more oil than soybeans. An oil price shock with a blending mandate results in a smaller change in oilseed prices compared with a fuel tax exemption. Jumps in world crude oil prices have differential impacts on commodity prices and welfare in developing countries, depending on which policy determines the biodiesel price in OECD countries.

Long-term drivers of food prices

2013-05-21T04:00:00.000Z

It is becoming increasingly apparent that the post-2004, across-the-board, commodity price increases, which initially appeared to be a spike similar to the ones experienced during the early 1950s (Korean War) and the 1970s (oil crises), have a more permanent character. From 1997-2004 to 2005-12 nominal prices of energy, fertilizers, and precious metals tripled, metal prices went up by more than 150 percent, and most food prices doubled. Such price increases, especially in food commodities, not only fueled a debate on their key causes, but also alarmed government officials, leading to calls for coordinated policy actions. This paper examines the relative contribution of various sector and macroeconomic drivers to price changes of five food commodities (maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and palm oil) by applying a reduced-form econometric model on 1960-2012 annual data. The drivers include stock-to-use ratios, crude oil and manufacturing prices, the United States dollar exchange rate, interest rate, and income. Based on long-run elasticity estimates (approximately -0.25 for the stock-to-use ratios, 0.25 for the oil price, -1.25 for the exchange rate, and much less for others), the paper estimates the contribution of these drivers to food price increases from 1997-2004 to 2005-12. It concludes that most of the price increases are accounted for by crude oil prices (more than 50 percent), followed by stock-to-use ratios and exchange rate movements, which are estimated at about 15 percent each. Crude oil prices mattered most during the recent boom period because they experienced the largest increase.

The exceptional persistence of India's unorganized sector

2013-05-21T04:00:00.000Z

The transformation of India's unorganized sector is important to its modernization, growth, and attainment of regional economic equality. This paper documents several key facts about India's unorganized sector in manufacturing and services. First, the unorganized sector is large, accounting for more than 99 percent of establishments and 80 percent of employment in manufacturing. Second, the unorganized sector is stubbornly persistent -- it accounted for 81 percent of manufacturing employment in 1989 and 2005. Third, this persistence is not due to particular subsets of industries or states, as most industries and states show limited change in unorganized sector employment shares. Fourth, the degree to which localized unorganized activity exists is important as it is associated with weaker production functions for manufacturing firms. Building from these facts, the paper investigates conditions promoting transformation by state-industry. Decomposition exercises find that both within and between adjustments for state-industries weakly reduce unorganized sector shares. The aggregate persistence instead comes from the covariance term, where fast-growing state-industries witness rising unorganized sector activity. Regressions quantify that growth in the organized sector by state-industry reduces the unorganized sector employment share, but only marginally reduces employment levels in unorganized activity. Analysis of the establishment size distribution highlights that entrepreneurship and larger organized sector plants are most important for transitions in the manufacturing sector, while small establishments play a key role in the services sector.

Engaging for results in civil service reforms : early lessons from a problem-driven engagement in Sierra Leone

2013-05-23T04:00:00.000Z

Two related propositions have been central in the recent debates on public sector reforms. The first of these is that the appropriate measure of institutional strength is the ability of public sector management systems to deliver ("functionality") rather than the institutional "form" or what these institutions look like. This is a central idea in the World Bank's Public Sector Management (PSM) Approach 2011-2020. Second, and consistent with this, is the recognition that the process of engagement matters in the sense that how problems, solutions, and reform approaches are identified matters at least as much as what the solution is. This suggests that development institutions should focus on bringing a broad range of stakeholders together and facilitate a process of collective problem and solution identification. Recent contributions to the literature describe a "Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation" approach as a means of putting this idea into practice. While both of these propositions have considerable intellectual and intuitive appeal, they are based on an inductive logic and neither is currently backed with a large body of robust evidence. This paper contributes to this literature by documenting the experience of a civil service reform project -- the World Bank-financed Sierra Leone Pay and Performance Project -- the objective of which is to improve the performance of the civil service in Sierra Leone by targeting a narrowly defined set of critical reforms. The paper concludes that intensive, client-led engagement together with use of a results-based lending instrument provide a promising way forward on a difficult reform agenda.

How to move the exchange rate if you must: the diverse practice of foreign exchange intervention by central banks and a proposal for doing it better

2013-05-23T04:00:00.000Z

The paper is about the art of exchange rate management by central banks. It begins by reviewing the diversity of objectives and practices of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. Central banks typically exercise discretion in determining when and to what extent to intervene. Some central banks use publicly declared rules of intervention, with the aim of increasing visibility and strengthening the signaling channel of policy. There is tentative evidence that the volatility of foreign exchange reserves is comparatively lower in emerging market economies where central banks follow some form of rules-based foreign exchange intervention. The paper goes on to argue that when the foreign exchange market includes some large strategic participants, the central bank can achieve superior outcomes if intervention takes the form of a rule, or "schedule," indicating commitments to buying and selling different quantities of foreign currency conditional on the exchange rate. Exchange rate management and reserve management can then be treated as two independent objectives by the central bank. In line with the stylized facts reviewed, this would enable a central bank to pursue exchange rate objectives with minimum reserve changes, or achieve reserve targets with minimum impact on the exchange rate.